VET News

Latest Employment Indicator is Released

The latest Employment Indicator provides advance warnings of whether employment is likely to grow faster or slower than its long-term trend rate of growth and is produced by the Australian Government Department of Education, Skills and Employment.

The Indicator is designed to give advance warning of turning points in ‘cyclical employment’ (i.e. the deviation of the centred one-year trend in employment from the centred six-year trend). 

The average lead time of the Indicator over the series (i.e. the time between a peak or trough in the Indicator and the corresponding peak or trough in cyclical employment) is over a year. 

A ‘turning point’ in the Indicator is said to be confirmed when there are six consecutive monthly movements in the same direction after the turning point. 

A fall (or rise) in the Indicator does not necessarily mean that the level of employment will immediately fall (or rise). Rather, it implies that after a lag, the growth rate of employment may fall below (or rise above) its centred six-year trend rate.

The Monthly Leading Indicator of Employment (the Indicator) has fallen in April 2022.

Access the April 2022 report.

The next issue is scheduled for release on Wednesday 18 May 2022.

Date posted Apr 21, 2022